Search Brentwood TN Homes For Sale HERE
"Before everything else, getting ready is the secret
of success." --Henry Ford
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE ...Getting ready for a recovery could be
the theme of last week's housing reports. Pending Home Sales, after
hitting a 19-month high in November, dipped a bit for December, yet came in
5.6% above where they were a year ago . The National Association of
Realtors chief economist observed, "Even with a modest decline, the
preceding two months of contract activity are the highest in the past four
years outside of the homebuyer tax credit period."
Thursday saw December New Home Sales drop 2.2% , to a
lower-than-expected 307,000 annual rate. Yet sales remain in the narrow range
they've occupied since May 2010. And the best news was that new home
inventories dropped to 157,000, the lowest level on record, since 1963.
Unsold new homes under construction and unsold completed new homes are at or
near record lows. Experts say this is what's needed to get ready for a
sustained housing recovery. Finally, the FHFA price index for homes bought
with conforming mortgages was UP 1% in November.
Brentwood TN homes are flying off the market, if you or someone you know needs to buy or sell in Brentwood, Franklin or Nashville TN call me now! 615-957-6333 .
>> Review of Last Week
UP AND DOWN... It was a week where investors
couldn't decide if they felt positive or negative about the economy and the
major market indexes reflected this, with two of them heading up for the week
but the third one ending down. The big news? The Fed extended its pledge
to hold interest rates exceptionally low -- from mid-2013 to late 2014. And
for the first time, the FOMC set a specific inflation goal: 2%. Also for the
first time, the Fed released the rate expectations of each member. The
median showed no change this year or next and a hike to only 0.75% by the end
of 2014.
Other good news came with Durable Goods Orders, up a better than expected 3%
for December. Unfortunately, this was followed by initial jobless
claims, up 21,000 for the week, to 377,000. Finally, the Advance GDP
estimate for Q4 came in at a 2.8% annual rate. This was better than Q3, but
less than expected. Economists were also disappointed that a large part of
the increase was only due to an unexpected buildup in inventories.
For the week, the Dow ended down 0.5%, at 12661; the S&P 500 closed up
0.1%, at 1316; and the Nasdaq gained 1.1%, to 2817.
The Fed's announcement it will hold rates low even longer, plus their inflation
target, did wonders for bonds. The FNMA 3.5% bond we watch ended the week UP
1.01, to $103.22. National average mortgage rates edged up a bit in
Freddie Mac's weekly survey of conforming mortgages, though they're still at
historically low levels. Experts put this to the improving housing market data.
DID YOU KNOW? ...Tuesday's Employment Cost Index measures changes in
wages, benefits and bonuses for a group of occupations. It's an inflation
indicator because prices can go up with increased labor costs, unless offset by
productivity gains. Also Brentwood TN home sales were up almost 20% and unemployment in Williamson County down to 5.6%, now is the time to buy and live in Brentwood and Franklin TN!
>> This Week’s Forecast
INFLATION, MANUFACTURING, JANUARY JOBS... Hot
buttons this week touch all the hot topics. Monday we see the Fed's favorite
inflation measure, Core PCE Prices , expected to stay within the
central bank's guidelines. The manufacturing sector gets covered in Tuesday's Chicago
PMI , forecast down a trifle, but Wednesday's ISM Index is
predicted up for the month.
The hottest of the hot data comes Friday, with the January Employment
Report . The forecast is for a smaller gain in payrolls than last month's.
Historically, as employment improves, it pulls housing along with it.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar
Weaker than expected economic
data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data
points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates.
Economic Calendar for the Week of Jan 30 – Feb 3
Date
Time (ET)
Release
For
Consensus
Prior
Impact
M
Jan 30
08:30
Personal Income
Dec
0.4%
0.1%
Moderate
M
Jan 30
08:30
Personal Spending
Dec
0.1%
0.1%
HIGH
M
Jan 30
08:30
Core PCE Prices
Dec
0.2%
0.1%
HIGH
Tu
Jan 31
08:30
Employment Cost Index
Q4
0.4%
0.3%
HIGH
Tu
Jan 31
09:45
Chicago PMI
Jan
62.0
62.5
HIGH
Tu
Jan 31
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Jan
67.0
64.5
Moderate
W
Feb 1
10:00
ISM Index
Jan
54.7
53.9
HIGH
W
Feb 1
10:30
Crude Inventories
1/28
NA
NA
Moderate
Th
Feb 2
08:30
Initial Unemployment Claims
1/28
375K
377K
Moderate
Th
Feb 2
08:30
Continuing Unemployment
Claims
1/21
3.525M
3.550M
Moderate
Th
Feb 2
08:30
Productivity-Prelim.
Q4
0.6%
2.3%
Moderate
F
Feb 3
08:30
Average Workweek
Jan
34.4
34.4
HIGH
F
Feb 3
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Jan
0.2%
0.2%
HIGH
F
Feb 37
08:30
Nonfarm Payrolls
Jan
170K
200K
HIGH
F
Feb 3
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Jan
8.5%
8.5%
HIGH
F
Feb 3
10:00
ISM Services
Jan
53.1
52.6
Moderate
>> Federal Reserve
Watch
Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... At
last week's FOMC meeting, the Fed extended its goal of keeping the Funds Rate
super low through late 2014. Note: In the lower chart, a 1% probability
of change is a 99% certainty the rate will stay the same.
Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%
After FOMC meeting on:
Consensus
Mar 13
0%–0.25%
Apr 25
0%–0.25%
Jun 20
0%–0.25%
Probability of change from current policy :
After FOMC meeting on:
Consensus
Mar 13
<1%
Apr 25
<1%
Jun 20
<1%
Courtesy Tonya Esquibel SWBC Mortgage Brentwood TN 615-300-0794
See all homes for sale on the MLS for Brentwood, Nashville and Franklin TN on my website www.vanessastalets.com
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"Workin' nine to five. What a way to make a livin.'" Dolly Parton.
And with last week's Jobs Report showing that unemployment has
reached three-year lows, that's something more people have been able to
do lately. Read
on to learn more about what's happening in the labor
market...and with home loan rates.
On Friday, the Labor Department reported that 200,000 jobs were
created in December, with 212,000 private job gains offsetting modest
losses in
government jobs. Adding to the positive spin of the report was
the Unemployment Rate falling to 8.5% from a previously reported and
upwardly revised
8.7% reading. In Williamson County TN, Brentwood and Franklin especially, the unemployment rate is 5.6%!!
While people being removed from the labor force are skewing this
unemployment number to some degree, it's important to note that the U-6
unemployment
rate dropped a few ticks as well, to 15.2%. This number includes
ALL unemployed individuals, including those "marginally attached" to
the labor force,
who are either 'discouraged' and haven't sought work recently,
as well as those folks working part-time who really desire full-time
jobs.
Overall the Jobs Report was a modestly positive reading on the
labor market. We still have 5.6 million people unemployed for 27 weeks
or more, and that
number is little changed this month. But the big takeaway today
is that the trend is improving.
The other big takeaway is that bad news out of Europe helped
balance out the good Jobs news here at home...allowing Bonds and home
loan rates to
recover from their initial negative reaction to the Labor
Department's report. The Euro is continuing to be weighed down by rising
concern on member
countries' ability to get their deficits in order and their debt
in manageable position.
The bottom line is that the problems in the Eurozone are vast,
complicated, and without easy solutions…so it will take a very long time
for clear
resolution. And during times of global uncertainty, money will
flow into the relative safe haven of the US Dollar and US Bonds -
including Mortgage
Bonds, which home loan rates are tied to.
This means that home loan rates should continue in their
sideways trend and remain near historic lows, making now a great time
to purchase or
refinance a home. Let me know if I can answer any
questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week
The second half of the week features several important economic reports:
The Fed's Beige Book will be released on Wednesday. This is a report on economic conditions from the 12 Federal Reserve District Banks
around the country.
Initial Jobless Claims will be released on Thursday. Last week's number fell by 15,000 to 372,000 and the report signaled that the labor
market could be turning the corner to greener pastures.
Retail Sales will be released on Thursday and will be
closely watched by both investors and traders. Last week, it was
reported that
retailers saw better-than-expected revenues for same-store sales
in December, but the numbers were achieved by big discounts. Sales on
Black Friday
were robust, but fell off in the ensuing weeks during December.
So the markets will be watching closely for the final numbers this week.
The first look on Consumer Sentiment for January will be released on Friday.
In addition to those reports, the Treasury Department will sell a
total of $66 Billion in government securities on Tuesday, Wednesday,
and Thursday.
Those auctions could impact the markets, depending on how
they're received. So, I'll be watching the results - and their impact -
closely.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out
of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve,
while strong
economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates
remain near their record best levels. I will be monitoring this closely
in the weeks
ahead.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Jan 06, 2012)
The Mortgage Market Guide View...
There's an App for That New Year's Resolution!
Making It Happen, Part 2
In last week's View article, we focused on 5 steps to achieving
your New Year's Resolutions. Those steps included: setting realistic
goals, making a
simple plan for each goal, announcing your goals, tracking and
celebrating your progress, and avoiding the urge to give up if you have a
setback.
Luckily, you're not on your own to work through those steps.
That's because there are a number of social media websites and smart
phone applications
designed to help you.
Obviously, popular apps like Facebook and Twitter
can help you announce your
goals, hold yourself accountable, and receive supportive
feedback from friends and family members. But there are a number of
additional resources that
you may not know about.
Here are just 5 social media sites and apps that can help you set your New Year's resolutions…and stay on track!
1. Tweet Reminders .
Twitter is great for connecting with people and sharing news
instantaneously. But did you know it's also a great way to remind
yourself about tasks?
Need a reminder to go to the gym… or to call those past clients?
No problem. Visit the Tweet Reminders site, and then enter your Twitter
username
and up to 5 tasks or reminders. You can even pick a date and
time. Then, Tweet Reminders will send you a direct message on Twitter to
remind you about
them. It's both an easy and helpful thing to do.
2. Moteevate .
Regardless of whether your goal is big or small, this site has
the inspiration, energy, and advice you need to reach it. With
moteevate, you get
support from people you already know as well as advice from
experts in the field - all while being surrounded by people looking to
achieve similar
goals. You can even moteevate in teams and act as moteevators
for each other. The site also includes cool trackers to record your
progress and
milestones. Plus, you can customize the privacy settings to keep
your goals to yourself or share them with others. And best of all, the
basic platform
is free to use with the caveat that you pay whatever you want
after you achieve your goal. In fact, this honor system is the only
thing old-fashioned
about moteevate.
3. Toodledo .
This is a businessperson's dream app. You've no doubt seen a
To-Do list before…but this app kicks it up a notch! Not only does it
help you easily
organize your tasks and set alarms, but it also allows you to
collaborate with other people and establish sub-tasks to work towards
your goal in small
steps! Plus, Toodledo can be used on your mobile phone, in your
email, on your calendar, and even integrated directly into your web
browser. So you can
stay on track from anywhere…and at any time.
4. StickK .
The basic principle of this app is that "incentives get people
to do things." So if you really want to achieve a goal - whether it's
personal or
professional - it's time to put your money where your mouth is.
Basically, stickK allows you to create a Commitment Contract focused on
achieving a
specific goal. As part of the process, you set your goal and
timelines, stakes, referee who will monitor your progress, and
supporters who will cheer
you on. If you achieve your goal in your timeframe, you don't
lose the stakes you wagered. But - the best part is - even if you don't
achieve your
goal, the money you wagered goes to a worthy cause or charity
that you designate. So it truly is a win-win situation!
5. GymPact .
This is similar to stickK in that you put money on the line…but
it's different in that you can also earn some money. You start by making
a
commitment that you will go to the gym a certain number of times
per week (don't worry, you can change your pact any week). You also set
the monetary
stakes that you'll pay if you don't meet your commitment. Then,
you simply use the GymPact iPhone app to check in when you go to the
gym. When you meet
your weekly goal, you'll be rewarded with real cash, funded by
the people who didn't work out! The more days you commit, the more cash
you earn. The
only downside is that you need an iPhone (or an iPod Touch and a
gym with Wi-Fi) to participate, since apps for other systems aren't
available.
Of course, this is just the tip of the iceberg when it
comes to social media websites and apps designed to help you set and
achieve your goals.
Best wishes to you in the coming weeks and months.
And, if your New Year resolutions involve any financial
or housing matters in Nashville, Franklin or Brentwood TN that I can help with, please call or email today.
I'll be happy to
help out in any way that I can.
Economic Calendar for the Week of January 09 - January 13
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Wed. January 11
02:00
Beige Book
Moderate
Thu. January 12
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
1/7
NA
372K
Moderate
Thu. January 12
08:30
Retail Sales
Dec
NA
0.2%
HIGH
Thu. January 12
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Dec
NA
0.2%
HIGH
Fri. January 13
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Jan
NA
69.9
Moderate
Courtesy Shane Atwell Primary Residential Mortgage 615-377-0711 Permission to republish
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400Your Nashville, Franklin and Brentwood TN Homes source!
Filed under: Brentwood TN Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Brentwood Tennessee , Brentwood Tennessee Real Estate , Spring Hill TN Real Estate , Franklin Tennessee Real Estate , Williamson County TN Real Estate , Nashville TN Real Estate , selling homes in Brentwood Tennessee , Buying homes in Brentwood TN , Brentwood TN Real Estate For Sale , Homes For Sale in Brentwood Tennessee , Brentwood Tennesee Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Franklin TN Homes For Sale , Nashville TN Homes For Sale , Brentwood TN , Mortgage Rates , Wall Street , Brentwood Tennesee , Franklin TN Homes , Tennessee Homes For Sale , Nashville TN Homes , Franklin TN , Nashville TN Finance , Brentwood Tennesee Finance , Brentwood TN Finance , Brentwood TN Mortgage , Spring Hill TN Homes
Search for Brentwood TN homes here!
It's been said that "the only constant is change."
And we certainly saw a lot of changes in 2011. As we ring in
2012, here's a look at how 2011 ended, and what lies ahead for TN home
loan rates.
The Stock and Bond Markets were closed on Monday in observance
of the Christmas holiday, and it was a fairly quiet week after that.
However, there was
some good news, as Consumer Confidence came in at 64.5 for
December. Not only was this the third highest number reported for 2011,
but this important
index has jumped nearly 25 points in the past three months and
now sits at its highest level since April. What's more, this report
followed the recent
Consumer Sentiment Index reading, which also came in at its
highest level in six months.
While consumers certainly appear more optimistic here, the news
hasn't been as positive out of Europe. The Euro struggled somewhat last
week after just
an okay performance from one of Italy's Bond auctions. While the
country sold all their debt at yields slightly lower than where they
were just the day
prior, yields are still historically high (near 7% on 10-Year
Notes) for a country that has a lot of debt to service and refinance in
the coming year.
In addition, Spain's government announced on Friday that the
country's budget deficit will surpass 8%. Spain also unveiled new
austerity measures to
combat their economic and budgetary difficulties.
So what does all of this mean for home loan rates here in the U.S. in 2012?
The uncertainty in Europe should continue to help Bonds and home
loan rates, as investors will see our Bonds as a safe haven for their
money - and
remember, home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, so rates
typically improve as Mortgage Bonds improve. However, continued good
economic reports
here in the U.S. could balance out those improvements. That's
because investors will typically move their money out of Bonds and into
Stocks during
good economic times, so they can take advantage of gains.
The bottom line is that whatever lies ahead this year,
2012 begins with Brentwood TN home loan rates near historic lows...which makes this a
great time to purchase or refinance a TN home. Let me know if I can answer
any questions at all for you. Also, recently it was released that Williamson County has one of the lowest unemployment rates at 5.6%. Brentwood TN is the place to be in 2012 and I can help you get there! Call me anytime, 615-957-6333~
Forecast for the Week
The Stock and Bond Markets will be closed on Monday, January 2,
in observance of the New Year's holiday, but the week will be a busy one
after that.
Tuesday brings the Federal Open Market Committee Minutes from the Fed's last meeting in 2011. The Markets will be especially interested
to hear what the Fed may have said about inflation.
The ISM Services Index will be reported on Thursday. This
report gives investors a gauge as to how the service sector is holding
up in
this economy. Individuals employed in this sector produce
services rather than products. Service sector jobs provide a significant
number of jobs in
the US - including housekeeping, messenger services, tax
preparation, nursing, and teaching.
Also on Thursday, we'll see another weekly Initial Jobless Claims Report. It is encouraging to see that Claims remain beneath the 400,000
mark, which is a sign that the labor market is improving.
The biggest news of the week will be Friday's Jobs Report , as the Labor Department reveals the latest unemployment figures and how many
new jobs were created in December.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out
of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve,
while strong
economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates
remain near their historic best levels. I'll be keeping a close eye on
this as the year
progresses.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 30, 2011)
The Mortgage Market Guide View...
Making It Happen!
Part 1: 5 Simple Steps for Achieving Your New Year's Resolutions
Each new year is full of promise and potential. Perhaps that's
why so many of us choose this time of year to make positive changes in
our lives.
And, believe it or not, achieving your goals can be easier than
you think. The following 5 steps can help you get started and follow
through!
1. Set realistic goals.
The first step to your successful New Year's resolutions is to
set realistic goals for the coming weeks and months. You can start by
focusing on the
things you're passionate about or the things you've always
wanted to do. Maybe it's a worthy cause you want to become involved
in…or maybe you
want to kick a habit that's bothered you for years. If it's
something that you're passionate about, you'll have a better chance of
being successful.
Once you have the topic, make sure you write down a specific,
attainable goal. It's not enough to just think about doing something.
Come up with a
specific statement you want to achieve. For example, the most
common resolution is to lose weight. But that's not specific enough.
Write down exactly
how much weight you want to lose and by when. But make it
realistic…and healthy at the same time.
2. Make a simple plan to achieve each goal.
Once you have your goals written down, take the resolution a
step further by figuring out how you'll achieve it. That means breaking
the goal down into
simple steps that you can achieve over time. And, often, it
means multiple little steps. So, for the weight loss resolution, you may
write down a
number of simple, daily or weekly steps - such as exercise 20
minutes three times a week, eat vegetables and fruit with each meal,
switch to diet cola
or better yet water during the day, and lose a certain number of
pounds per month. Remember to consult a physician before starting any
weight loss or
exercise routine to make sure you're approaching it in a healthy
manner.
3. Announce your goals.
One of the best ways to make sure you stick to your goals is to
make them known to your friends, coworkers, and family members. The
reality is, once
you've told people you'll do something, you'll feel more
accountability than if you just keep it to yourself. You'll also have a
cheering section to
help you stay focused and positive as you work to achieve your
goals. But don't just share your goals; share the specific steps that
you're going to
take each day or week to achieve those goals. If you use any
social media websites to connect with friends and family, make your
goals and steps part
of your daily/weekly updates…it's a great way to get the word
out and hear feedback from people who want to help you stay on track.
4. Track and celebrate your progress.
Small steps aren't just about making your way to a goal; they're
also about building momentum, a positive attitude, and celebrating
successes along the
way. There are a number of ways to track and celebrate your
success. For example, if your goal is to work out 20 minutes a day three
times a week, you
can use a marker and a calendar. Each day you work out, simply
color that day in green (or another positive color that you like). As
the month unfolds,
you'll see more and more green covering the calendar, which will
help you see just how much work you've done and keep you motivated to
keep going. In
addition, you can also use social media to track and celebrate
your success. Maybe you tweet or update your Facebook status every time
you exercise. Or
maybe you announce when you've lost a few pounds. The point is,
you've already announced your goals to friends and family as a way to
hold yourself
accountable, now it's time to celebrate with those same people
every time you achieve a step along the way.
5. Don't get discouraged.
You're bound to have good weeks and bad weeks. Just because you
fall off track once or twice doesn't mean you should give up. Instead,
acknowledge that
you had a bad day or week, figure out what happened to throw you
off track (maybe it was a busy or stressful week), and then make a plan
to overcome
the problem if it happens again. For example, if you had a tough
week at work that required you to work late and miss the trip to the
gym, make a plan
to be proactive the next time work gets busy. Perhaps you make a
plan to walk during your lunch break or wake up early to do jumping
jacks and push-ups
before heading into the office. But…whatever you do…don't
give up on your goals or yourself. Review your plan and recommit
yourself to
those simple steps. You can even use social media to acknowledge
a mistake and commit to overcoming that problem in the future. That
way, you'll have a
new sense of accountability and support from your friends and
family.
Best wishes to you in achieving all your goals and
dreams this year. And if your New Year's resolutions involve any
financial or housing
matters that I can help with, please call or email
today. I'll be happy to help out in any way that I can.
Economic Calendar for the Week of January 02 - January 06
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. January 03
10:00
ISM Index
Dec
53.0
52.7
Moderate
Tue. January 03
10:00
Construction Spending
Nov
.8%
.8%
Low
Tue. January 03
02:00
FOMC Minutes
Dec 13
Low
Wed. January 04
10:00
Factory Ord. & Manufacturing Inventories
Nov
1.9%
-0.4%
Moderate
Thu. January 05
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
12/31
375K
381K
Moderate
Thu. January 05
10:00
ISM Services Index
Dec
53.0
52.0
Moderate
Fri. January 06
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Dec
150K
120K
HIGH
Fri. January 06
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Dec
8.7%
8.6%
HIGH
Fri. January 06
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Dec
0.2%
-0.1%
Moderate
Fri. January 06
08:30
Average Work Week
Dec
34.3
34.3
Low
Courtesy Shane Atwell Primary Residential Mortgage 615-377-0711 Permission to re-publish
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400Your Brentwood, Franklin, Nashville TN homes for sale source!
Filed under: Brentwood TN Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Brentwood Tennessee Real Estate , Franklin Tennessee Homes , Williamson County TN Real Estate , Nashville TN Real Estate , selling homes in Brentwood Tennessee , Buying homes in Brentwood TN , Brentwood TN Real Estate For Sale , Homes For Sale in Brentwood Tennessee , Brentwood Tennesee Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Brentwood TN Homes For Sale , Franklin TN Homes For Sale , FranklinTennessee Real Estate , Brentwood TN , Mortgage Rates , Wall Street , Brentwood Tennesee , Franklin TN Real Estate , Franklin TN Homes , Nashville TN Homes , Franklin TN , Nashville TN Finance , Brentwood Tennesee Finance , Brentwood TN Finance , Brentwood TN Mortgage
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"Whistle while you work." Snow White.
That's something more people have been able to do lately, as Initial
Jobless Claims have now fallen below 400,000 - a level that
historically is associated with an improving job market - for five out
of the last six weeks. And
that wasn't the only bit of good news the markets saw last week.
Read on for details.
Not only was last week's Initial Jobless Claims reading of
366,000 the lowest level since May of 2008, there was a double dose of
good news in the
manufacturing sector, as both the Philadelphia Fed Index and the
Empire State Index were both well above expectations. Normally, good
economic news
causes money to move out of Bonds and into Stocks as investors
like to take advantage of gains...and this would typically hurt home
loan rates, as they
are tied to Mortgage Bonds.
However, the continued uncertainty out of Europe helped keep
Bonds and home loan rates on an improving trend, as the US Dollar and US
Bonds (including
Mortgage Bonds, which home loan rates are based on) are
benefiting from safe haven buying. Ultimately, Europe needs to provide a
large financial
backstop for their banks and sovereign debt in order to fix
their problems longer-term. Until this happens, uncertainty should
benefit the US Dollar
and US Bonds, and keep home loan rates relatively low.
One factor that we can't ignore, though, is inflation. Despite the
Fed stating again last week that inflation is moderating, core
consumer level inflation has continued to inch higher every month. Also,
last week's Producer Price Index showed that inflation at the
wholesale level was slightly higher in November. Remember,
inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates, because if
inflation rises,
investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the lost
buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home loan
rates are tied to
Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates move higher.
The bottom line is that while the uncertainty out of
Europe should continue to help Bonds and home loan rates, both inflation
and continued
good economic reports here in the US could temper these
improvements. With home loan rates still near historic lows,
now remains a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let
me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week
The Bond Markets will be closing early at 2:00 p.m. on Friday
for the Christmas holiday, but the week will be busy before then.
Housing Starts and Building Permits (Tuesday), Existing Home Sales (Wednesday) and New Home Sales (Friday) for
November will be reported.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Thursday, and the Markets will be looking to see if the reading remains under 400,000.
Also on Thursday, we'll see the Consumer Sentiment Index for December as well as the final reading on Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2011. The second reading came in at 2%, down from the first reading of 2.5%.
Finally, Friday the markets will see reports on Personal Income and Personal Spending along with the inflation indicator Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE). Durable Goods will also be reported.
In addition to those reports, the National Association of
Realtors (NAR) will announce downward revisions for Existing Home Sales
over the past 5 years
- and the revision is expected to be "meaningful."
Finally, the Treasury Department will sell a whopping $99
Billion in 2-, 5- and 7-year Notes on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out
of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve,
while strong
economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, uncertainty out of Europe
continues to help Bonds and home loan rates, though they are facing
resistance. I'll be
watching this closely as we head into the new year.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 16, 2011)
The Mortgage Market Guide View...
Give the Gift of Charity this Holiday Season!
It's a Snap with THE GOOD CARD® - a Gift Card for Charity
Network for Good has a fresh angle on gifting this holiday season: The Good Card® - a gift card for charity
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be redeemed as a donation to any of more than 1.2 million charities
based in the US.
Good Cards can be distributed via email or physical mail, or can be
private labeled to meet your brand needs. Learn more at Network for Good .
A gift card for charity is an ideal reward for employees or
thank you gift for customers and vendors that links their passion for a
cause to your
company's brand. A new study by researchers from Harvard
Business School, the University of British Columbia and the University
of Liege that was
recently highlighted in the Washington Post confirms that
a bonus employees get to spend on others is more motivating than a
bonus they get to
spend on themselves. A Good Card recipient can redeem their gift
card as a donation to any of more than a million nonprofits, an easy
way for employees
to share their personal rewards with others.
Good Card purchases, including fees, are tax-deductible to your
company and are a creative way to spend funds earmarked for
philanthropy. In addition,
because Good Card purchases are charitable donations, they do
not fall under the IRS gift limit or policies around corporate gifts
with cash value.
Network for Good's charity gift card program is turn-key,
customizable and easy to implement - even at the last minute. The
program is recommended for
any company looking to put a special spin on their gift-giving
this year. What's more, the person GIVING the gift (i.e., the card
purchaser) gets the
benefit of a tax advantage for charitable donations as well.
The Good Card is a creative and constructive way to honor
partners and prospects, friends and neighbors during the holiday season and throughout the year. Visit Network for Good for more details.
Economic Calendar for the Week of December 19 - December 23
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. December 20
08:30
Housing Starts
Nov
NA
628K
Moderate
Tue. December 20
08:30
Building Permits
Nov
NA
653K
Moderate
Wed. December 21
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Nov
NA
4.97M
Moderate
Thu. December 22
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
12/17
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. December 22
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q3
NA
2.0%
Moderate
Thu. December 22
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q3
NA
2.5%
Moderate
Thu. December 22
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Dec
NA
67.7
Moderate
Fri. December 23
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Nov
NA
-0.5%
Moderate
Fri. December 23
08:30
New Home Sales
Nov
NA
307K
Moderate
Fri. December 23
08:30
Personal Income
Nov
NA
0.4%
Moderate
Fri. December 23
08:30
Personal Spending
Nov
NA
0.1%
Moderate
Fri. December 23
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Nov
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. December 23
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
YOY
NA
1.7%
HIGH
Courtesy Shane Atwell Primary Residential Mortgage 615-377-0711 Permission to republish
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400Your Brentwood TN real estate and homes for sale source
Filed under: Brentwood TN Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Brentwood Tennessee , Brentwood Tennessee Real Estate , Spring Hill TN Real Estate , Franklin Tennessee Real Estate , Williamson County TN Real Estate , Finance , Nashville TN Real Estate , selling homes in Brentwood Tennessee , Buying homes in Brentwood TN , Brentwood TN Real Estate For Sale , Brentwood Tennesee Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Brentwood TN Homes For Sale , Nashville TN Homes For Sale , Brentwood TN , Mortgage Rates , Wall Street , Brentwood Tennesee , Franklin TN Real Estate , Franklin TN Homes , Nashville TN Homes , Nashville TN Finance , Brentwood Tennesee Finance , Brentwood TN Finance , Brentwood TN Mortgage , Spring Hill TN Homes
Search Brentwood TN Homes For Sale Here
It's been said that "slow and steady wins the race."
And when it comes to the Jobs Report for November, it seems that
the labor market continues to improve at a gradual pace. Read on for
the details...and
what they mean for home loan rates.
There was good news, as the headline number for job creations in
November came in at 120,000, with 140,000 private jobs offsetting
government losses. What's more, some upward revisions to the two
previous readings added 72,000 more jobs than had been reported.
Perhaps even more important, Hourly Earnings grew by just 0.1% -
a number that suggests no threat of wage-based inflation. Remember,
inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates because when
inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a higher yield to offset the
lost buying power inflation imposes on a fixed payment. And as home
loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this would mean home loan rates
move higher. So the Hourly
Earnings number was good news for Bonds and home loan rates.
Catching the markets by surprise was a rather sharp decline in
the unemployment rate to 8.6%, the lowest unemployment rate we've since
March of 2009.
While this is good news on the one hand, part of the decline
stems from the fact that 315,000 people were removed from the workforce
because they
totally gave up looking for work. And with 13.3 million
Americans still out of work, more improvement is certainly needed here.
Similarly, the labor participation rate (which is currently
hovering at a 30-year low at 64) needs to move above 66 or it will be
difficult for the
economy to grow fast enough to lower our budget deficit. In
fact, last week Bond ratings firm Fitch issued a stern warning to the
US, saying that our
AAA rating will be in jeopardy if we don't soon do something to
rein in our own ever-growing budget deficit.
It is good news that we're seeing some slow and steady
improvement in the labor market…and coupling this with other recent
positive
economic signals, means we are not near a recession at
the moment.
But our economic health remains fragile, and any external shock
from Europe could easily disrupt the economic improvement we are seeing.
The bottom line is that the uncertainty out of Europe - and the
prospect of additional Mortgage Bond buying (QE3) from the Fed - should
continue to
support Bonds and home loan rates as they will benefit from
investors looking for a safe haven for their money. However, it is also
unlikely that Bonds
and home loan rates will improve much further. Inflation, while
not yet a problem, is still elevated…and if it continues to creep
higher, this
will limit any improvement home loan rates may see.
With home loan rates still near historic lows, now
remains a great time to purchase or refinance a home. Let me know if I
can answer any
questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week
In the absence of data and with earnings season over, Stocks and
Bonds will battle over investing dollars and trade off the
geo-political headlines out
of Europe.
The ISM Services Index will be reported on Monday. This
report gives investors a gauge as to how the service sector is holding
up in
this economy. Individuals employed in this sector produce
services rather than products. Service sector jobs provide a significant
number of jobs in
the US - including housekeeping, messenger services, tax
preparation, nursing and teaching.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Thursday. This week's report comes after last week's report showed that claims rose
above the 400,000 level for the first time in four weeks.
Consumer Sentiment will be delivered on Friday to cap off the week.
In addition to that news, here's something to keep an eye on in
the weeks ahead. Stocks may be set for another jump. That's because of
something that's
become known as the "Santa Claus Rally." The Santa Claus Rally
is usually a surge in Stocks in the week between Christmas and New
Years.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of
Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while
strong
economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates are
being supported by rumors of QE3 and the continued certainty out of
Europe. I will
continue to watch these developments in the weeks ahead.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Dec 02, 2011)
The Mortgage Market Guide View...
Holiday
Spending Without an Extra Cent
Time is a precious commodity, but it's even more treasured
because it is fleeting. As soon as a day, an hour, or even a minute
passes, it is gone
forever.
While that might be stating the obvious, it's an important
concept to reflect on during the often-hectic holiday season. So this
holiday season -
regardless of which holiday you celebrate or if you celebrate
any - remember to focus on and spend time with the people around you,
including family,
friends, and even coworkers or clients.
When TV personality and kid expert Art Linkletter was asked
about the idea of spending time with loved ones this is what he said:
"I once asked a five-year-old what he would take with him if he
were going to Heaven. He replied, 'I would take my parents because I
think that up
there they would have more time with me'... nuff said."
The good news is, it's actually possible to slow time down in a
way that seems to lengthen special events like a day of fishing with
your child or a
special dinner with a good friend. The key is to consciously
honor the person and the event as you experience it. To be in the
moment.
In the days and weeks ahead, remember to recognize the people
you care about. You don't need to do or say anything specific, nor do
you need to spend
any money. You simply need to spend time with them. So consider
setting aside two hours one day for coffee with a friend. Or if you have
children, make
special plans to take each one out individually for their own
dinner. You can even set aside a short amount of time each day to call
some of your
special clients to see how they're doing and personally wish
them a happy holiday. And when you do, avoid distractions like
technology or worries about
what else you need to do that day.
After all, once the moment passes, you can go back to that
checklist of things to do. But you can never go back to that moment in
time.
Economic Calendar for the Week of December 05 - December 09
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. December 05
10:00
ISM Services Index
Nov
53.4
52.9
Moderate
Thu. December 08
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
12/3
395K
402K
Moderate
Fri. December 09
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Dec
65.0
64.1
Moderate
Courtesy Shane Atwell Primary Residential Mortgage 615-377-0711 Permission to republish
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400Your Brentwood TN homes and real estate source
Filed under: Brentwood TN Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Brentwood Tennessee , Brentwood Tennessee Real Estate , Spring Hill TN Real Estate , Franklin Tennessee Real Estate , Williamson County TN Real Estate , Tennessee Homes For Sale , Finance , selling homes in Brentwood Tennessee , Buying homes in Brentwood TN , Brentwood TN Real Estate For Sale , Homes For Sale in Brentwood Tennessee , Brentwood Tennesee Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Real Estate , Brentwood TN Homes For Sale , Franklin TN Homes For Sale , Nashville TN Homes For Sale , Brentwood TN , Mortgage Rates , Wall Street , Nashville TN Finance , Brentwood Tennesee Finance , Brentwood TN Finance , Nashville TN Real Estate for sale , Brentwood TN Mortgage , Spring Hill TN Homes
Search Brentwood TN Real Estate and Homes Here
Here's How to Start the Holiday Season
This time of year is all about reflection. Taking the time to
consider the blessings in our lives - from family and friends to
education and
opportunity. But it's also a time to renew our spirits and
souls, especially as we head into the holiday season and a new year. To
help you make the
upcoming holiday season feel a little less hectic and more
reflective, consider dedicating specific times of the day or week to
family activities that
focus on the blessings of the season.
The website Kaboose.com can help. It offers a wide variety of
word searches, crossword puzzles, mazes, coloring pages and more that
you can download
and print for free. Better still, those activities are available
in different levels of toughness and subjects, so you can find the
right activity for
your family. Use the links below to start finding holiday
activities that help you celebrate the meanings behind the holidays:
Here's to wishing you and yours the very best as we head
into the beautiful holiday season. If you have any questions or if
there's anything I
can do for you or someone you know, please just call or
email. I'm always happy to help in any way I can.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 28 - December 02
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. November 28
10:00
New Home Sales
Oct
325K
313K
Moderate
Tue. November 29
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Nov
45.5
39.8
Moderate
Wed. November 30
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Nov
NA
110K
HIGH
Wed. November 30
08:30
Productivity
Q3
2.6%
3.1%
Moderate
Wed. November 30
09:45
Chicago PMI
Nov
58.0
58.4
HIGH
Wed. November 30
10:00
Pending Home Sales
Sept
NA
-4.60%
Moderate
Wed. November 30
02:00
Beige Book
Nov
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. December 01
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
11/26
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. December 01
10:00
ISM Index
Nov
52.0%
50.8
HIGH
Fri. December 02
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Nov
110K
80K
HIGH
Fri. December 02
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Nov
9.0%
9.0%
HIGH
Fri. December 02
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Nov
0.2%
0.2%
HIGH
Fri. December 02
08:30
Average Work Week
Nov
NA
34.3
HIGH
Courtesy Shane Atwell Primary Residential Mortgage 615-377-0711
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400Your Brentwood TN real estate and homes for sale source!
Filed under: Brentwood TN Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Brentwood Tennessee , Brentwood Tennessee Real Estate , Williamson County TN Real Estate , Tennessee Homes For Sale , Nashville TN Real Estate , Buying homes in Brentwood TN , Brentwood TN Real Estate For Sale , Brentwood Tennesee Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Brentwood TN Homes For Sale , Nashville TN Homes For Sale , Brentwood TN , Wall Street , Brentwood Tennesee , Franklin TN Real Estate , Franklin TN Homes , Nashville TN Homes , Franklin TN , Nashville TN Finance , Brentwood Tennesee Finance , Brentwood TN Finance , Nashville TN Real Estate for sale , Brentwood TN Mortgage , Christmas , Chanukah , New Years's , Kwanzaa
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"Should I stay or should I go now?"
The Clash.
And last week, Greece's Prime Minister George Papandreou announced his
resignation, a move seen as a way for new government to step in and
implement
the Euro rescue plan, thereby securing the financing necessary for
Greece to avoid default. But that's not the only news story making
headlines last
week. Read on for the details...and what they could mean for home
loan rates.
The European crisis that has been lingering for 18 months
continues to develop…and it's not over yet. Lucas Papademos was named
as interim Prime
Minister of Greece. During his eight years with Greece's Central
Bank, he helped the country achieve very strong economic growth rates.
But let's not
cue the sunset, happy music, and production credits just yet.
Greece continues to be a very volatile situation, and continued
uncertainty could once
again push investors back into the US Dollar and US
Bonds...helping home loan rates in the process.
In addition, as the soap opera in Greece continues, eyes have
turned squarely towards Italy, whose Bonds yields have spiked on growing
concern it is
the next Greece. Italy is not in the same dire situation as
Greece yet, but their economy is far larger--the world's 7th
largest, in fact--and a debt crisis in that region will be much more
difficult to contain. To add to the Italian uncertainty, Italy's Prime
Minister Silvio Berlusconi is
under heavy pressure to resign for a variety of scandalous
reasons.
Here at home, another story to watch came on the words from Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke, who stated that the Fed has "considerable
latitude" to choose
its long-term inflation goal. Although Bernanke didn't elaborate
on specifics, the gist of his comment is that the Fed may tolerate
higher inflation
for a period of time in an attempt to help the economy recover
and improve the employment sector.
Remember, the Fed is charged with a dual mandate of (1)
controlling inflation as well as (2) supporting job creation. While
inflation remains close to
the Fed's target range, unemployment is nowhere near where the
Fed would want to see it, which is between 5% and 6%. So it appears the
Fed may make
decisions in the future to improve employment, possibly at the
slight expense to inflation.
This is important because inflation is the archenemy of Bonds
and home loan rates. So any increase in inflation could negatively
impact home loan
rates.
The bottom line is that now remains a great time to
purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates are still near historic
lows.
Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week
The economic calendar was extremely light last week, but look
out this week! The markets are set for a slew of reports that will give
us a look at the
economy across many sectors.
Manufacturing news from the Empire State Index (on Tuesday) and Industrial Production (on Wednesday) will be closely
watched this week for any signs of a pickup.
After his comment last week, Fed Chairman Bernanke will be
listening with both ears for any increase in inflation when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are released. Look for the PPI report to be released Tuesday, followed by the
CPI report on Wednesday.
Also on Tuesday, we will see how the consumer is holding up when the Retail Sales report is released.
Rounding out the week, Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Thursday. Last week's report fell below the 400,000 level, which is a
good sign but one week doesn't make a pattern.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of
Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while
strong
economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, the markets continue to be
volatile, though home loan rates are still near historic lows. As
always, I'll be
monitoring this situation closely.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 11, 2011)
The Mortgage Market Guide View...
A Flu Outbreak Near You?
It's that time of year when we turn our attention to the winter
season. While there are many things to look forward to such as the
holidays, many of
us--including you, your clients, or your friends--may also start
to worry about the flu. And the cost of the season is nothing to sneeze
at! Did you know
that Americans spend approximately $4 Billion on
over-the-counter cold and flu remedies? That's not even factoring in how
much time and productivity is
lost on sick-time in the workplace, or co-pays for doctor visits
and prescriptions.
But now there's a way you can stay up-to-date on the latest flu information in your area.
The "Flu Near You" Website
The Children's Hospital Boston has partnered with the American Public
Health Association and the Skoll Global Threats Fund to bring you the
"Flu Near You" website .
On this site, any individual living in the United States who is
13 years of age or older can register to complete brief weekly surveys
that may help
all of us learn more about the flu. When a case is reported, the
map registers a "pin" in the map-and you can even click on that pin to
learn more
about the symptoms or severity of the case!
Now You Can:
See flu activity in your area at the regional or state level
Explore flu trends around the world with Google Flu trends
Use the "Flu Vaccine Finder" to locate nearby locations offering flu shots or nasal spray flu vaccine
Receive customized email disease alerts at your location
Learn more about flu news, information, and resources at flu.gov
Check out local public health links
Browse the Disease Daily to discover summaries of important
outbreaks and expanded coverage through the Outbreaks 101 news section
The site is completely free to use. And the information on the
site will be available to public health officials, researchers, disaster
planning
organizations and anyone else who may find this information
useful. So consider registering and using this site today
Want More Local Health Information?
In addition to the Flu Near You map , the Children's Hospital Boston also administers a Healthmap that features information about other health concerns or outbreaks in your community and around
the world.
So if you're concerned about the upcoming flu season or other health
concerns, take a few minutes to check out the Flu Near You map and the Healthmap .
You may even want to consider passing the information on to your friends, family members, or even your clients.
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 14 - November 18
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. November 15
08:30
Core Producer Price Index (PPI)
Oct
NA
0.2%
Moderate
Tue. November 15
08:30
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Oct
NA
0.8%
Moderate
Tue. November 15
08:30
Retail Sales
Oct
NA
1.1%
HIGH
Tue. November 15
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Oct
NA
0.6%
HIGH
Tue. November 15
08:30
Empire State Index
Nov
NA
-8.48
HIGH
Wed. November 16
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Oct
NA
0.3%
HIGH
Wed. November 16
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Oct
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Wed. November 16
09:15
Industrial Production
Oct
NA
0.2%
Moderate
Wed. November 16
09:15
Capacity Utilization
Oct
NA
77.4%
Moderate
Courtesy Shane Atwell Primary Residential Mortgage 615-377-0711 Permission to republish
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400Your Brentwood TN real estate and homes for sale source
Filed under: Brentwood TN Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Brentwood Tennessee , Brentwood Tennessee Real Estate , Williamson County TN Real Estate , Finance , selling homes in Brentwood Tennessee , Buying homes in Brentwood TN , Brentwood TN Real Estate For Sale , Homes For Sale in Brentwood Tennessee , Brentwood Tennesee Homes , Brentwood TN Real Estate , Brentwood TN Homes For Sale , Brentwood TN , Mortgage Rates , Wall Street , Credit Crisis , Brentwood Tennesee , Brentwood Tennesee Finance , Brentwood TN Finance , Brentwood TN Mortgage
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"The only things we can be sure of are death and taxes."
Benjamin Franklin. And lately, volatility in the markets is
another certainty...and last week was no exception. Read on to learn
about the week's big
newsmakers, and what they meant for home loan rates.
Friday's
Jobs Report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was a big market mover,
showing that 80,000 jobs were created in October, which was just
slightly below expectations. In addition, 104,000 private sector
jobs were created, also just below expectations while the unemployment
rate dropped to
9%, from a previous reading of 9.1%. A big positive in the
report was once again upward revisions to prior month's readings, which
showed 102,000 more
jobs created in the two previous months than what was originally
reported.
The takeaway from the report is that it doesn't appear the economy is slipping into another recession...at least not yet.
The labor market continues to create jobs, but at a very slow
and uneven pace. Until we see significant job growth--north of 150,000
each month, for a sustained amount of time--we won't see meaningful
improvement in the economy or the unemployment rate. This turn means
that rates should continue to
hover at low levels, albeit in a volatile fashion.
Also limiting how high our rates can go is the ongoing European
drama. The removal of the referendum (Greek Prime Minister George
Papandreou had
announced he would put the Euro rescue plan to a referendum or
vote amongst the Greek people) is one piece of uncertainty taken away
from the
market--and that was a big one. However, there are still so many
things that can and probably will go wrong until the European leaders
put a big,
realistic, attainable solution into action. For instance,
Italy's Bond yields continue to inch higher, suggesting that their debt
problems won't easily
be solved and continue to creep towards an unmanageable state.
Plus, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday during his speech
after the regularly scheduled meeting of the Federal Open Market
Committee that
purchases of Mortgage Bonds are being considered--which is
another factor that could benefit home loan rates.
The bottom line is that home loan rates are still near
historic lows, which makes now a great time to purchase or refinance a
home.
Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week
While the Stock Markets are open Friday, the Bond Market will be
closed in honor of Veterans Day. And with fewer economic reports this
week--and with
earnings season essentially behind us-the Bond Market will take
direction from a number of factors.
The first major report will be released on Thursday when Weekly Jobless Claims are reported. Last week's report showed that weekly claims
fell below 400,000 to 397,000, which was better than the 401,000 that was expected.
The markets will also get a new read on how American consumers feel about the economy with the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
In addition to those reports, the headlines coming out of Europe
will continue to influence the markets here in the US, including Bonds
and, as a
result, home loan rates. Also, this week's Treasury auctions
totaling $72 Billion could be a big market mover, depending on how
they're received.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out
of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve,
while strong
economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates
were able to take advantage of the decrease in Stocks last week, due in
part to the uncertainty out of Europe. I'll be monitoring this situation
closely in the weeks ahead.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Nov 04, 2011)
The Mortgage Market Guide View...
Meals and Deals for Veterans Day!
This Friday, November 11, 2011 is Veterans Day. That means it's
the perfect opportunity to honor America's veterans for their
patriotism, love of
country, and commitment to serve and sacrifice for the common
good of the USA.
Need a few ideas of what to do? What if you could go out to
eat…go to an amusement park… and much more for free or a special
discount?
Well, if you're a Veteran, you can!
Don't Plan Your Day Until You Read This
Believe it or not, hundreds of companies around the country offer special Veterans Day deals, including:
Applebee's
Chili's
Denny's
Golden Corral
McCormick & Schmick's
Subway
Lowe's
Home Depot
Anheuser-Busch Parks
National Parks
Amazon
Seven-Eleven
And many, many more!
Look No Further
The best part is that you can find the details about all these deals in
one place! Just visit The Military Wallet's listing for up-to-date
Veterans Day free meals and discounts !
And happy Veterans Day to all the men and women who have served our country in the past…and continue to guard our nation!
Economic Calendar for the Week of November 07 - November 11
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Thu. November 10
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
11/5
NA
NA
Moderate
Fri. November 11
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Nov
NA
60.9
Moderate
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When the Fed talks, people listen.
And last week, the Fed made headlines when Fed Governor Daniel Tarullo
called for the Fed to engage in another round of Mortgage Bond
purchases…or in other words, another round of Quantitative Easing (QE3).
Read on to find out what this could mean for the housing market and
home loan rates.
In order to really have an impact on housing, the Fed would have to
announce something significant to get people to buy a home. Why? Because
even now, with rates at historically low levels and incredible
affordability levels, the sales pace in housing is tepid, due to
structural problems in the labor market, which the Fed can't fix.
In fact, there is a lot to consider before the Fed starts expanding
their balance sheet, and the biggest concern is rising inflation. Contrary to what the Fed has said about it moderating, year-over-year inflation is on the rise.
The headline Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by a whopping 0.8% in the
month of September, elevating year-over-year wholesale prices by a hot
6.9%. Meanwhile, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September rose by
0.3%, and while this was inline with estimates it pushed the
year-over-year number to 3.9%. This is significant because the
year-over-year figure was just 1.6% in January.
Remember, inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds and home loan rates. The
concept is very simple: If inflation rises, investors in Bonds demand a
higher yield to offset the lost buying power inflation imposes on a
fixed payment. And as home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, this
would mean home loan rates move higher.
And let’s not forget the ongoing drama out of Europe. French and
German leaders will hold two summits in the span of four days to come up
with a resolution to the European debt crisis. Whichever way this news
goes could have a real effect on the markets, including Bonds and home
loan rates.
With all the news to come this week, it’s still
important to remember that now remains a great time to purchase or
refinance a home, as home loan rates are still near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week
Look for some key reports on the housing market, which come after
last week’s better-than-expected Housing Starts and the softer numbers
from Existing Home Sales.
New Home Sales are set to be delivered on
Wednesday. That number has been hovering near record lows, so the
markets will be anxious to see if there’s any indication of an
improvement. Also this week, Pending Home Sales will be released Thursday. Also on Thursday, Initial Jobless Claims will be released as usual. Plus, the first reading on Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) for the 3rd quarter will be released. Overall, the estimates
don’t appear as if the economy is hitting on all cylinders yet. The markets will see how the American people are holding up in this economy with Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment on Tuesday and Friday, respectively. Ending the week, Friday’s Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE), the Fed’s favored inflation measure, is sure to garner some attention.
In addition to those reports, keep an eye on the news. One story
that could gain some attention is news that the Federal Housing Finance
Agency (FHFA) and the Obama administration will submit proposals to
Congress to help the housing market for those homeowners who are
underwater.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of
Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while
strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates stayed
in a tight range last week. I’ll be watching closely to see how the
markets react to Fed Governor Tarullo’s call for QE3, the news out of
Europe, and the economic reports of the week.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 21, 2011)
The Mortgage Market Guide View...
Don’t Say Another Word!
5 Secrets to Leaving More Effective Voice Messages
People are busy. That means, even with the wide variety of technical
products developed to keep us in touch, it’s sometimes hard to get a
hold of people. In those instances, we find ourselves transported back
to the tried-and-true technology of the 1980s—that is, leaving a
message after the beep.
Same Old, Same Old
While the technology has changed from tapes to megabytes, the basic
concept of a voice message remains the same. You talk; it records;
people listen.
Sadly, that’s not the only thing that’s the same. Many people still
don’t know how to leave a message that provides information but also
establishes a compelling reason for the listener to call back.
Use These Tips Today!
The following tips can help you be more effective and get better results with voice messages:
1. Don’t Talk So Much. You have a limited window to
make your point. That means you can’t provide a lot of background
information or cover multiple topics.
Before you call, make sure you have a singular focus to mention if
you get the person’s voicemail. Then, highlight that important point,
and leave the rest of your points for the actual follow-up discussion.
2. Focus on a Problem. To put it bluntly: People don’t want to hear about you; they want to hear about themselves.
So before you call, make sure you’ve thought about the person on the
other end—including what she cares about, what she spends her time on,
as well as what she wishes she could spend her time on instead. You
could even try to imagine why she was busy and couldn’t answer the
phone. Or imagine where she’s about to rush off to as soon as your
message ends.
Based on those ideas, craft a simple, focused message that hits on ONE major problem or issue that the listener has.
3. Everyone Likes a Good Mystery . Once you’ve
focused on a single overriding problem, resist the temptation to go
into your sales pitch about solving it. For one thing, the listener
probably doesn’t have time (or want) to listen to your pitch. For
another, if you give your pitch, what reason do they have to call you
back?
Instead, only allude to the idea that a solution does exist…but don’t
go into detail. Leave some mystery. That’s your hook for getting them
to actually call you back…because now they actually have a reason to!
Finally, state a number the person can reach you at and say you’d
like to tell/give them some information by chatting for a couple of
minutes. You can even give them a time frame (such as saying they can
call you back by a certain day or time) to help create a sense of
urgency about solving the mystery you’ve established in your message.
4. Energy and Enthusiasm. Nobody wants to listen to a person who’s boring or sounds bored.
The same is true with voice messages. After all, if you don’t have
energy when talking about something, why should the listener have the
energy to call you back?
So before you call, take a second to raise your energy level. Some
experts recommend standing up when making a call or smiling while
talking on the phone, as a way to subtly convey a pleasant, energetic
tone.
5. Phone Home. It’s not enough to practice in your
head. It’s not even enough to practice out loud. You need to actually
leave some practice messages.
So here’s what you do: call your home phone and leave some test
messages. You can even try a few different approaches. When you get
home, take notes about what worked and what you want to improve. Then,
try the same process the next day or even every couple of months to
make sure you’re still effective.
Remember: If you don’t want to listen to yourself or don’t feel compelled to call back, then why would anyone else?
By following these tips and constantly working to
improve your voice message skills, you can help increase your
productivity and the number of responses you receive.
Economic Calendar for the Week of October 24 - October 28
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. October 25
10:00
Consumer Confidence
Oct
NA
45.4
Moderate
Wed. October 26
08:30
Durable Goods Orders
Sept
NA
-0.1%
Moderate
Wed. October 26
10:00
New Home Sales
Sept
NA
295K
Moderate
Thu. October 27
08:30
Pending Home Sales
Aug
NA
-1.2%
Moderate
Thu. October 27
08:30
GDP Chain Deflator
Q3
NA
2.5%
Moderate
Thu. October 27
08:30
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Q3
NA
1.3%
Moderate
Thu. October 27
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
10/22
NA
NA
Moderate
Fri. October 28
08:30
Personal Income
Sept
NA
-0.1%
Moderate
Fri. October 28
08:30
Personal Spending
Sept
NA
0.2%
Moderate
Fri. October 28
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Sept
NA
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. October 28
08:30
Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE
Sept
NA
1.6%
HIGH
Fri. October 28
08:30
Employment Cost Index (ECI)
Q3
NA
0.7%
HIGH
Fri. October 28
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Oct
NA
57.5
Moderate
Courtesy Shane Atwell Primary Residential Mortgage 615-377-0711
permission to re-publish
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400Your Brentwood TN homes and real estate source!
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What is Brentwood, Franklin or Nashville TN real estate value?
It isn't what you have into your house. It isn't what you feel it is worth. It is what the market will pay. How do you figure out what the market will pay? For single family homes, the best way is by seeing what similar homes have sold for. Figuring replacement cost isn't very useful. It's difficult to say what land is worth in a city center where none is left for sale, for example, and tough to gauge depreciation of the home itself. Valuation from replacement cost is used as a secondary method, and for unique homes that can't be compared easily with others. However, the primary method of real estate appraisal used for homes is a market analysis using comparable sales.
Real Estate Value 101: First find at least three similar homes in the same area that have sold within the last year, and preferably within the last six months. You can find this information is in county records (often online now), or from a real estate agent with access to the multiple listing service. Make sure you have the basic sales information: sales price, terms of sale, description of the property, etc.Here is how you use this information to find real estate value. Write down the selling price of your first comparable. Review the description item by item, adding to the sales price of the comparable for each thing it doesn't have that your subject home has, and subtracting for each thing it has that your subject home doesn't have.This sounds confusing, but it will make sense once you try it a couple times. For example, if your subject home has a second bathroom, and the a comparable doesn't, you add the value of the bathroom to the sales price of the comparable.
If a comparable home has a blacktop driveway, and the subject home doesn't, you take the value away.What you are doing is rectifying differences, to see what the comparable home WOULD have sold for if it was just like yours. Suppose a comparable sold for $140,000, with one less bathroom than your subject home, and a bathroom is worth $15,000 in your area (ask a TN real estate agent for help with these figures). You ADD $15,000 for the bathroom it doesn't have. You subtract, say $4,000, for the paved driveway it does have, that your home doesn't have. $140,000 plus $15,000, minus $4,000 gives you a comparable sales price of $151,000.Do this with all differences between the subject home and each comparable. Once done, average the three comparable prices. If, for example, the three comparables now have adjusted sales prices of $151,000, 162,000, and 149,000, add the three figures and divide by three. The indicated value of the home is $154,000.
All appraisal is an inexact science. You might only find comparables sold over a year ago, and have to estimate appreciation in the area. If a comparable sold with seller financing, you have to decide how much this affected the price. Still, for all of it's flaws, for single family homes in Brentwood, Franklin or Nashville TN this is the most accurate method for finding true real estate value.
-
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“It’s a small world after all.”
And that proved especially true last week, as our markets were impacted
by news at home and news from overseas. Here are the highlights.
First,
there was some good news on the economic front in the U.S. as Retail
Sales for September rose by 1.1%, above the 0.6% expected and the
highest increase in seven months. Remember good economic news typically
benefits Stocks at the expense of Bonds (including Mortgage Bonds, to
which home loan rates are tied), as investors move their money from the
safety of Bonds into Stocks to try and take advantage of gains.
And good news here wasn’t the only thing that pressured Bonds and
home loan rates last week. The European Central Bank (ECB) said they
will announce a plan by early November for addressing the Greek debt
crisis and make recapitalizing their banks a priority. As part of this
plan, the International Monetary Fund is going to dedicate more
resources to help the European debt crisis. A lot of money is needed to
make investors feel confident that the debt crisis will be contained,
so investors saw this as positive news.
So what does this mean for Bonds and home loan rates?
Should the overall present optimistic tone continue, Bonds and home
loan rates could face additional pressure. However, if there is
pessimistic or uncertain news, investors may return to the safe haven
of Bonds, meaning home loan rates could benefit. We did see a little of
this trend last week when there was word that China's exports came in
lower than expectations, which brought concern that global growth could
continue to slow.
Either way, the volatility is sure to continue so the
most important thing to remember is that now is still a great time to
purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates remain near historic
lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week
Manufacturing, inflation, and housing reports dominate the news this week:
The manufacturing sector accounts for one-quarter of the economy,
so it’s especially important during the current economic situation.
This week, the New York State Empire Manufacturing Index as well as Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization will be released on Monday. Later in the week, the Philadelphia Fed Index will be reported on Thursday. Inflation news from the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Price Index
(CPI) will be delivered on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. The
last report on consumer inflation was a bit hotter than expected, so
Bond market players will be closely watching those reports. Housing Starts will be reported on Wednesday and on Thursday Existing Home Sales will be delivered. The weekly Initial Jobless Claims report will be released on Thursday. As of last week’s report, they continue to remain above the 400,000 level.
Plus, earnings season is in full swing this week. Some big names
reporting earnings are Citigroup, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Apple,
and AT&T. If the reports come in better than expected, it could
push investing dollars over to the Equity markets.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of
Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while
strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates faced
pressure last week but remained above a key technical level. I’ll be
watching the markets closely this week to see what happens.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 14, 2011)
The Mortgage Market Guide View...
The Housing and Mortgage Markets in 2012
Last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released its
outlook for the housing and mortgage markets in 2012. Overall, the news
is mixed, but there’s some good news to glean out of it. Here are
three positive elements in the MBA forecast that you should know about:
1. Home Sales Steady Before Slight Increase
The MBA expects total existing home sales will stay around the 4.9
million unit pace for 2011 and 2012. But in 2013, the MBA expects home
sales to increase slightly to 5.2 million units, as the broader economy
recovers.
New home sales are expected to be similar to the overall trend. As
the MBA stated in its release: “The recovery in the new home sales will
have a comparably slow start…but will show some meaningful increases
in 2013.”
2. Slight Growth in Home Purchases
Despite an expected decrease in refinances, the MBA forecasts some
slight growth in the number of mortgages for home purchases.
Specifically, the MBA anticipates home loans for purchases to increase
to $412 Billion in 2012, which would be up from the anticipated 2011
total of $400 Billion.
Better still, the MBA expects home loans for purchases to jump
significantly to $700 Billion in 2013 as the economy, home sales, and
home prices are all anticipated to pick up.
3. Rates to Remain Low
Overall, fixed home loan rates are expected to remain low by
historical standards. The MBA expects rates to end 2011 around a 4.5
percent average, and then possibly dropping slightly to 4.4 percent at
some point in 2012. But by 2013, the MBA expects rates to climb back up
to 4.9 percent – which is still low by historical standards but does
indicate a change in direction.
As always, forecasts can change based on numerous
factors not just in the U.S., but also in the global markets. And while
the MBA forecast does contain some negative aspects for the markets,
it does hold some slightly positive aspects as well.
Economic Calendar for the Week of October 17 - October 21
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. October 17
08:30
Empire State Index
Oct
NA
-8.82
Moderate
Mon. October 17
09:15
Industrial Production
Sept
NA
0.2%
Moderate
Mon. October 17
09:15
Capacity Utilization
Sept
NA
77.4%
Moderate
Tue. October 18
08:30
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Sept
NA
0.0%
Moderate
Tue. October 18
08:30
Core Producer Price Index (PPI)
Sept
NA
0.1%
Moderate
Wed. October 19
08:30
Building Permits
Sept
NA
620K
Moderate
Wed. October 19
08:30
Housing Starts
Sept
NA
571K
Moderate
Wed. October 19
08:30
Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Sept
NA
0.2%
HIGH
Wed. October 19
08:30
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Sept
NA
0.4%
HIGH
Wed. October 19
02:00
Beige Book
Moderate
Thu. October 20
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
10/15
NA
NA
Moderate
Thu. October 20
10:00
Existing Home Sales
Sept
NA
5.03M
Moderate
Thu. October 20
10:00
Philadelphia Fed Index
Oct
NA
-17.5
HIGH
Thu. October 20
10:00
Index of Leading Econ Ind (LEI)
Sept
NA
0.3%
Low
Courtesy Shane Atwell Primary Residential Mortgage 615-377-0711 Permission to republish
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400Your Brentwood TN Homes For Sale Source!
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People say that “life is full of surprises.”
And indeed, last week’s Jobs Report contained several surprises. Read on
to find out if they were good or bad...and what they meant for home
loan rates.
Overall, the Jobs Report wasn’t great, but it did surprise by being
better than anticipated. One thing that wasn’t a surprise was the
unemployment rate which held steady at 9.1%. But the headline number
came in at 103,000 jobs created, which was better than expectations of
60,000 and even higher than some of the more frothy expectations. In
addition, 137,000 jobs were created in the private sector, which offset
more government job losses and which was a lot better than the 83,000
private job gains expected.
Another surprise in the report was the significant upward revisions,
which added 99,000 jobs to what was previously reported in prior
months, and this added to the positive tone of the report. These upward
revisions really change a very pessimistic jobs picture to something a
bit more optimistic. For instance, last month the Jobs Report showed
zero job creations and now that figure has been revised to show 57,000
jobs created. Once again, these aren't great numbers—but they are
better than bad, and they tell us that the economy is not in a
recession…at least for now.
So, what did all of this mean for home loan rates? It’s
important to remember that when our economy is struggling, our Bond
Market usually benefits as investors seek a safe haven for their money.
And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, our home loan
rates are sometimes at their best when our economy is struggling. In a
way it makes sense...in times of economic struggle, good home loan
rates can help kick start our economy in other areas.
Yet, when good or better than expected economic news hits the wires,
like it did with Friday’s Jobs Report, investors often move their
money out of Bonds and into Stocks in an attempt to take advantage of
these gains. And that’s a big reason why we saw Bonds and home loan
rates worsen late last week.
The most important thing to remember is that now is
still a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates
remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week
There aren’t a lot of economic reports in this holiday-shortened
week, with the Bond Market closed Monday for Columbus Day (Stocks are
open for a regular session). Be sure to look for:
On Tuesday, the Meeting Minutes from the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be released and it could garner some attention. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims report
will be released on Thursday. Last week’s initial jobless claims crept
back up to just above 400,000 so it will be important to see which way
this week’s numbers move. Investors will also be focusing in on the Retail Sales
report for September, which is due out on Friday. Last Thursday it was
reported that September sales for retailers, which is a separate
report, were solid—showing a 5.1% year-over-year gain from the 23
largest retailers due to back-to-school sales. Also on Friday is the Consumer Sentiment Index , so we’ll get an idea about how consumers are feeling about the economy.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of
Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while
strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates
worsened last week due to several factors. I’ll be keeping a close eye
on which way they move this week.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 07, 2011)
The Mortgage Market Guide View...
Anxiety and Stress Are No Match for a Good Laugh
Whether you’re stressed about a deal at work, anxious about an
upcoming meeting with a client, or just feeling under the weather,
laughter can be the best medicine.
But why? What really happens that makes laughing so beneficial?
Doctors and scientists have some ideas about the benefits of laugher:
Stress —There’s actually a physical reason that
laughter reduces stress. In addition to being a great emotional release,
laughter reduces the number of stress hormones (such as cortisol and
epinephrine) in your body and helps boost good hormones like endorphins.
Blood Flow —Scientists have found that blood vessels
function healthily when people watch comedies, which means they expand
and contract more easily and help blood flow normally. This is in stark
contrast to the tightened blood vessels that were found in people
after watching a drama. In short, laughter improves blood flow, which
helps prevent heart attack and heart disease.
Cholesterol Levels —Recently, researchers have found
that people with Type 2 Diabetes who watched funny videos for at least
30 minutes each day had better “good cholesterol” levels after just two
months.
Heart and Abs —It turns out that laughing is a lot
like exercising. A good laugh can increase your heart rate, exercise
your diaphragm, and even contract your stomach muscles.
Calories —With the similarities between laughter and
exercise, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that laughing helps you burn
calories. In fact, one study found that 50 calories are burned in 10 to
15 minutes of laughter.
Immune System —There’s also evidence that laughter
helps boost antibodies, making your system better prepared to fight
viruses. So, a little laughter not only makes you feel better in the
short term, but also can help you remain healthier in the long term.
In addition to all of these physical reactions and
benefits, laughing is beneficial for your mental health too. It’s a
great anti-depressant… not to mention a great way to interact with
friends, family, and even clients while you strengthen your social
relationships.
Economic Calendar for the Week of October 10 - October 14
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Tue. October 11
02:00
FOMC Minutes
Sept
NA
NA
HIGH
Thu. October 13
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
10/8
406K
401K
Moderate
Thu. October 13
08:30
Balance of Trade
Aug
-$46.1B
-$44.8B
Moderate
Fri. October 14
08:30
Retail Sales
Sept
0.6%
0.0%
HIGH
Fri. October 14
08:30
Retail Sales ex-auto
Sept
0.3%
0.1%
HIGH
Fri. October 14
10:00
Consumer Sentiment Index (UoM)
Oct
60.0
59.4
Moderate
Courtesy Shane Atwell Primary Residential Mortgage 615-377-0711 Permission to republish
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400 Brentwood TN
Your Brentwood TN Homes and Real Estate for sale source!
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“Both optimists and pessimist contribute to our society. The
optimist invents the airplane, and the pessimist—the parachute.” G.B.
Stern.
And last week, we saw sentiment on the economy go from pessimistic, to
optimistic, and back to pessimistic—all within a week! Here are the
highlights of what happened.
On the optimistic side, several economic reports were better than
expected. For example, New Home Sales for August were up 6.1% from a
year earlier and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose in July from
June in the 10 and 20 city survey, and was the fourth monthly gain in a
row.
What’s more, there was some positive news from overseas. European
leaders are designing a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) that would issue
Bonds and purchase European debt to try to contain the malaise in that
region. Plus, Germany voted in support for the expansion of the European
Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which will be used to help Euro
member countries access capital. This is optimistic news, as it shows
Germany is doing whatever it can to help debt laden countries avoid
default and potentially threaten the Euro union.
While this mix of news was great for our economy and the global
economy, the result was a "risk on trade" where investors fled the safe
haven trade of Bonds and moved into Stocks to try and take advantage of
gains. And since home loan rates are tied to Mortgage Bonds, when Bonds
worsen home loan rates worsen as well. That’s what we saw happen in the
early and middle part of last week.
But some pessimism crept back into the markets late last week as
China's Manufacturing PMI contracted for a third consecutive month.
There is growing fear that a slowdown in China could affect the already
fragile global economy. This is a developing story and one I will be
watching closely because if China’s economy does meaningfully slow, it
will likely take Stocks down another level and help Bonds and home loan
rates. Also creating some pessimism late in the week: Personal Income
was lower than expected, and seeing earnings contract is not a good sign
for the economy.
The bottom line is that now is a great time to purchase or refinance a home, as Brentwood TN home loan rates remain near historic lows. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week
Can the U.S. job market get back on its feet? We’ll find out this week, along with more manufacturing news:
On Monday, the ISM Index will be delivered, and it’s probably the most closely watched manufacturing report out there. Jump ahead to Wednesday to see the first labor market reading of the week with the release of the ADP Employment Report . Weekly Jobless Claims will be released as usual
on Thursday. Last week's drop below 400,000 was welcomed by investors,
but the Labor Department said the numbers were somewhat impacted by
seasonal adjustment factors. Last but not least is Friday's Jobs Report , which
includes Hourly Earnings, Average Workweek, Unemployment Rate and the
closely watched Non-farm Payrolls Report. In August, there were zero
jobs created, which was a major blow to the psyche of the investment
world. So the markets will be watching this report closely.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of
Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while
strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
As you can see in the chart below, Bonds and home loan rates were
able to remain above a key trading level. I’ll be watching closely to
see which way sentiment impacts the markets this week.
Chart: Fannie Mae 3.5% Mortgage Bond (Friday Sep 30, 2011)
The Mortgage Market Guide View...
Fannie and Freddie to Increase Fees…
But What Does It Mean?
Starting in 2012, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are expected to
increase their fees, which could impact TN homebuyers depending on the
risk of their loan or the location of their home.
Here’s what you need to know – including what’s really happening and what it means to TN homebuyers.
What fee is being increased?
First, it’s important to remember that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac do
not actually make home loans. Instead, they provide financing to
lenders by purchasing mortgages from those lenders. Then, Fannie and
Freddie either keep those mortgages on their books or they package them
(in the form of securities) for sale to investors.
That means, Fannie and Freddie don’t actually charge direct fees to
homebuyers. But they do charge fees to lenders when they purchase home
loans from those lenders. The lenders, in turn, build those fees into
the home loans they offer. So the bottom line is that any increase in
the fee that Fannie and Freddie charge lenders will essentially be
passed on to consumers.
However, the fees likely won’t be increased the same amount across
the board. For example, Fannie and Freddie may charge higher fees when
purchasing riskier loans or they may vary the fees based on which part
of the country the home is located in (taking into account things like
the foreclosure rate of the location).
Why is this happening?
Fannie and Freddie were seized by the government three years ago to
help protect them from failing. That’s important because Fannie and
Freddie (along with other government agencies) actually guarantee about
9 out of every 10 new home loans—and with the challenges that the
housing market has seen recently, those guarantees have been extremely
important. However, Fannie and Freddie have also cost the taxpayers
more than $140 Billion.
So Fannie and Freddie will gradually increase their guarantee fees
next year and reduce the size of the home loans they purchase in an
effort to:
1. Save taxpayers money and
2. Reduce the amount of government involvement (by attracting more private funding to the mortgage market)
What does this mean to TN homebuyers?
As stated above, the fees likely won’t be increased exactly the same
across the board—so the impact will vary depending on the location of
the home, risk of the loan, etc.
But we can look at one example to get an idea of the potential
impact. For example, as the Wall Street Journal reported, if we
calculate an increase of 0.1 percentage point (which is a number the
White House proposed), we can see that a home loan for $220,000 would
be increased by about $15 per month.
So the increase may not be very noticeable for many homebuyers. And,
if people purchase a home while affordability is still high and home
loan rates are still historically low, they’ll still benefit
significantly compared to other times throughout history.
What should people do?
The fees are expected to begin increasing in 2012 and gradually
rising thereafter. If someone you know is thinking about purchasing or
refinancing their Brentwood TN Homes, there’s still time to examine the options and make a move
before the fee increase becomes much of an issue.
The best advice is to explore all options now. Call or email today and I’ll be happy to answer any questions you may have.
Economic Calendar for the Week of October 03 - October 07
Date
ET
Economic Report
For
Estimate
Actual
Prior
Impact
Mon. October 03
10:00
ISM Index
Sept
50.5
50.6
HIGH
Wed. October 05
08:15
ADP National Employment Report
Sept
48K
91K
HIGH
Wed. October 05
10:00
ISM Services Index
Sept
53.0
53.3
Moderate
Thu. October 06
08:30
Jobless Claims (Initial)
10/01
401K
391K
Moderate
Fri. October 07
08:30
Non-farm Payrolls
Sept
60K
0K
HIGH
Fri. October 07
08:30
Unemployment Rate
Sept
9.1%
9.1%
HIGH
Fri. October 07
08:30
Hourly Earnings
Sept
0.2%
-0.1%
HIGH
Fri. October 07
08:30
Average Work Week
Sept
34.2
34.2
HIGH
Courtesy Shane Atwell Primary Residential Mortgage 615-377-0711 Permission to re-publish
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400 109 Westpark Dr Suite 100 Brentwood TN 37027
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What is FICO? The various credit bureaus can use different methods at arriving at your score and this is why you can sometimes have more luck getting credit from one lending institution than another. The industry standard is a system called FICO. FICO stands for Fair Isaac Corporation Company. FICO is software for calculating credit score and is regarded as the leader in the calculation of credit score within the finance industry. The fact that it is commonly accepted as the most suitable way to rate a person's credit score is why many people will talk of FICO scores or FICO ratings rather than calling them credit scores. The software that is used to calculate credit score, whether it is FICO or other software uses research and mathematics to decide upon the rating. This information is important to you as it will help you to have a better understanding of what you can do to give your credit score a boost in its rating. The best way to explain how credit score is calculated is to compare it to insurance premiums where you will pay a higher premium based on various factors in your life. With insurance those factors will be your age, your occupation, your health and even your choice of sport where dangerous activities will make you a higher risk for the insurance company. The insurance company can then look at their research data and calculate your risk. Obviously older people and those participating in dangerous activities will be a higher risk and those people will be expected to pay higher premiums. Credit bureaus have similar research data that relates to peoples ability to repay debt in certain circumstances, and it is this data that they will use when they input your information to decide whether they will lend you money and if so at what interest rates.
For more information or to find a lender please contact Shane Atwell at Primary Residential Mortgage Brentwood TN 615-306-0214
Vanessa Stalets 615-957-6333 RE/MAX Elite 615-661-4400Your Brentwood TN homes and real estate source
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